Broker Check

Industry Professional Comments

This Blog section has been created for the sole reason to identify those interesting comments that have been said by industry professionals.    These quotes are those that have resonated with H&S that we think all our clients would find helpful!

Barron's - 9/17/2018

"October begins a new fiscal year for the U.S government- and a faster ballooning of how much it owes. Barring a behavioral miracle in Congress, trillion dollar yearly budget shortfalls will return, perhaps as soon as the coming year. And unlike the ones brought by the financial crisis and Great Recession f 2007-09, these will starts during a period of relative plenty, and wont end."

"Those estimates, provided by the Congressional Budget Office, are based on reasonable assumptions about economic growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates, but they leave out some important things. They assume that the nations need for increased infrastructure investment, estimated by the American Society of Civil Engineers at $1.4 trillion through 2025, goes unmet. They don't account for the possibly of another financial crisis, or war, or a rise in the frequency or severity of natural disasters, and they assume that some trump tax cuts will expire in 2025."

"Just holding the line at 78% of GDP over the next three decades would require finding massive, immediate savings in the budget- $400 billion over the coming year, rising gradually to $690 billion by 2048, using 2019 dollars. In comparison, America spent $590 billion in fiscal 2017 on defense, and $610 billion on all other discretionary items. (The rest of the $4 trillion in spending went for mandatory programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, and for interest on the debt.)"

"When Deficits are large, money tends to be spent on "stupid things," says Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "If you don't have too constraints, you don't  think about how to spend wisely." MacGuineas calls debt "The most predictable crisis we've ever faced," but says spotting the tipping point will be difficult, because much depends on other countries , and their appetite for our debt. "We can borrow a lot more if were still the best-looking horse in the glue factory," she says." 

"Not at all deficits are bad. The $1 trillion-plus deficits America ran for four years ending in 2012 helped shore up its financial system and prevent a deep recession from turning into a prolonged depression. Keynesian economics calls for deficit spending and lower taxes during economic slumps to stimulate demand, with the money recouped through surpluses during good years. That last part isn't happening, however. "Now Keynesian seems to mean you stimulate all the time," says Gundlach." 

Barron's - 3/19/2018

"The market is so discombobulated right now that it cant even decide what its afraid of. What do we mean? When the Standard & poor's 500 index suffered its first correlation since the beginning of 2016 last month, the cause was easily identified- a good old fashioned inflation scare caused by a larger-than-expected increase in wages and a rapidly rising 10- year Treasury yield which almost hit 3%."

Barron's - 3/12/2018

"some of the best periods for stocks have come when interest rates have risen from low-levels"

"But it's important not to lose sight of the defensive protection these sticks can provide. "I'm a big believer in reversion to the mean and in seasonality, especially when it comes to the midterm elections," says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research."